Standard Bank Ghana, expects the country's GDP growth to hit 6.8 percent on a year-on-year basis in 2022 through 2023, following a significant progress in rolling out Covid-19 vaccinations between September 2021 and January 2022.
The Bank which won the best bank in Africa, consider the successful roll out of Covid-19 vaccines as an indicator of economic growth in the country. As at January 2022, an estimated 20.2 percent of the population had received one dose per person within the period.
This is according to Standard Bank’s African Markets Revealed (AMR) report. The report evaluates the cyclical and structural evolution of each economy, developments that are likely to have an impact on the balance of payments, and the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy in African countries.
Ghana has a population of over 31million people and the country currently boasts of a nominal GDP of US$74.0billion with growth in real GDP canvassing 4.5 percent.
While the bank forecast strong economic growth, there is a caveat, as the bank believes the ongoing global supply chain challenges in the world market could restrain growth in the cocoa and industrial sub-sectors in 2022.
''Cocoa production and exports could still be dragged lower due to fertilizer shortages. As of Q2:21, cocoa and gold exports combined accounted for around 55.3% of total merchandise exports.''
The bank has however backed the mining sector to rejuvenate into full operations. The African Markets Revealed report that on a quarterly basis, the mining and quarrying sub-sector grew by 16.9 percent, from an average contraction of 10.7 percent in June 2021, implying that growth momentum may be recovering.
''Whereas we expect a recovery in gold production and exports over the coming year, we simultaneously also see a notable rise in the imports of goods. As the economy continues to recover from the pandemic, non-oil imports may increase further. Also, given the government’s expansionary fiscal policy stance, capital goods imports will likely remain elevated over the next 2-years.''
Though the inflation in the country continues to rise, the African Markets Revealed report that global risk sentiment is likely to remain unpredictable, weighing down the Ghana Cedis.
Source: Abdul-Razak Mohammed(Real Estate Times Africa)
